One Value Bet is basically a probability (odd) exacerbated that a particular bookmaker gave a particular event. If we imagine a football match between Real Madrid and Barcelona, in which Real Madrid is a time of considerably better shape, first in the championship, and playing at home, the probability (odds) for Real Madrid victory will probably be greatly reduced. However, if we encounter a probability (odd) way above that expectation, we will be faced with a Value Bet.


How to calculate a Value Bet?


Basically, a Value Bet is a bet underestimated by the bookmaker. When a particular bookmaker incorrectly calculates the probability of winning the specific team, exacerbating the value of that probability, it is considered a Value Bet, and therefore an excellent opportunity to put enough money at stake. Here’s an example:


Real Madrid win: 1.65 share
Barcelona win: 2.10 share


When using a statistic to determine the Real Madrid win probability in a good form and playing at home, we would probably something like a probability of 75/80% to Real Madrid win the game while the probability presented the bookmaker is 60.60%:


1/share Real de Madrid = 1/1.65 = 60.60%


With this, we quickly realized that the probability of Real Madrid victory is being underestimated by the bookmaker, when in fact it should be around much lower values (the probability should be 1/75% = 1:33 or 1/80 = 1.25% ). Given this situation, we are looking for a Value Bet, where the bookmaker has underestimated the potential of Real Madrid win at home, offering an overly high probability for the event.


How to find a Value Bet?


The hardest part of this whole process, it is precisely to find a Value Bet. To do this, the vast majority of bettors, use updated statistics on sporting events in order to more easily understand whether a particular event / outcome is being miscalculated by bookmakers or not. It is also possible to find a Value Bet, using a comparative odds from various bookmakers. When calculating for example, bets for champions league, we found large discrepancies between the odds offered by different bookmakers, which means that there are very interesting and real opportunities Value Bets to explore.


If you want to work to improve their strategies Value Bets, consider creating an Excel table where you can perform some statistics on certain football teams, for example, as the shape of the team, the percentage of home wins, the percentage of victories in clashes direct with other teams, and other specific data that can help you find a Value Bet with greater ease.


Considering that the bookmakers have quite advanced statistical tools with regard to the form and performance of the football teams, it is important that you also do your homework in order to achieve more easily find one in a moment of Value Bet carelessness or inattention that a bookmaker had to underestimate the victory of a team.


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